As we come to the end of 2008, we start to see many different organizations make predictions about the future of the Canadian Real Estate Market and where it might be going in the near future. Here are some of the recent predictions:
CIBC Economist: According to a recent Globe and Mail Article (Link here), CIBC Economist Benjamin Tal, expects “the average house price to fall by another 10 per cent over the next 12 months, and to remain relatively stable after that.”
RBC Economist: The Royal Bank published at report (Link here) that says, ” While the Canadian housing sector is undoubtedly entering a cyclical downturn, the risk of experiencing a U.S.-style meltdown is remote.”
Canadian Real Estate Association: Crea is forecasting that home sales in Canada will drop by 3% in 2009. (Link here) However, in 2007, CREA predicted that real estate sales would decline by 1.5% in 2008 and the decline ended up being more than 12%.
ByTheOwner.com: Real estate agents’ sales dropped by 12% in 2008 and ByTheOwner.com’s sales increased by 20%, so it seems that we have a different view of the real estate market. Our customers are able to offer the best price and still save, so we predict that our sales will increase in 2009, just as they did in 2008.
But what about the overall picture? I think it is safe to assume that housing prices will decline (too much supply, job losses, tougher mortgage rules). However, when housing prices start to decline, many very interesting things happen. First of all sales immediately decrease sharply. This is because it often takes consumers time to realize that they cannot sell their home for a high price. Most people avoid reducing their price and decide to wait. The homes that do sell are the ones with the best price. Also when prices start to decline, anyone who purchased a home in the last two years begins to realize that they cannot sell their home for a profit.
Lets examine the past: The graphs below show what happened in the Greater Toronto area in the last housing decline. We can see that the beginning of the slow down is where sales dropped dramatically from 50K in 1988 to 26K in 1990. Once that happened, prices decreases from their peak of $274K in 1989 until the low point of $198K in 1996 (6 years later). We are seeing the same pattern in 2007 and 2008. Sales start to rapidly decrease and prices drop as well, but not at the same pace.

Of course, aside from having a time machine, it is very hard to accurately predict the future of the real estate market, but what we do know is that selling privately is your best choice in any market. No matter what the market conditions, there is no replacement for saving 5% of your homes’ value by selling it yourself. $10,000, $15,000, $20,000 is a lot of money to save regardless if the market is up or down.
ByTheOwner.com